Musalia Mudavadi can never be president of Kenya.In fact, there is no other elective position that the once powerful politician of the Mulembe family can ever contest and win in the foreseeable future.
First, Mudavadi's chances of rising from the opposition to State House were dealt a blow by his comrade Raila Odinga in two ways. Before the 2017 general elections, Raila knew that he was going to lose but he still vied.
Nobody from the opposition, Mudavadi included, would have won the seat from President Uhuru Kenyatta.
But had Raila left the contest for Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi, the two would have curtain raised for the 2022 showdown against Deputy President William Ruto.
However, Raila would allow none of that.
The other way Raila finished Mudavadi's chances was by the infamous 'handcheque' with the president.
The truce meant that all the fire in NASA had been put out for the sake of peace in the country.
What this means is that Mudavadi and the other leaders in the opposition have nothing to inherit from the former fan base as Raila took away everything.
The few remaining Mudavadi sympathisers can barely make enough numbers to even challenge for the governor's seat in Vihiga, where Mudavadi hails from.
Away from Raila, the other reason Mudavadi will never be president is the William Ruto factor.
Ruto being a ruthless politician who gathers friend and enemy into the ballot, Mudavadi better starts thinking of the 2032 elections, a time when he will be a political grandfather.
With Ruto assured of the Rift Valley and a greater percentage from Mt Kenya residents (who will come out in large numbers to counter the narrative that they never support other tribes), Ruto is halfway to the seat.
He has been assembling a team of strong leaders from the main opposition zones and it is certain he has a through-way.
Finally, Kenyans are tired of the old clout of politicians. Perhaps 2022 will be the last time they will be considering old fellows (where Ruto will sail through) and then perhaps blood younger than Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja and Ababu Namwamba and Babu Owino will come in.
Musalia Mudavadi, therefore, has zero chances of clinching Kenya's top seat.