With the planned Migori senatorial by-election starting to gain momentum, NASA leader Raila Odinga is finding himself in another political headache following the Court of Appeal decision on Thursday to nullify the election of former Homa Bay Governor Cyprian Awiti.
Being ODM's key strongholds, the battle for the two seats will no doubt shape the region's political landscape going into the 2022 elections.
For Migori which has always witnessed violence during nominations, the party's mode of picking a candidate will be Raila's make or break moment, as it may create a fallout especially if the mode is considered biased or unfair by some of the aspirants.
On Wednesday, the party confirmed that it will not be conducting nominations. Instead, the National Elections Board will sit down and pick a candidate. Is this the best option especially in a key stronghold where the potential candidates have huge following? No.
In the neighboring Homa Bay county, the Raila Odinga-led party risks losing the seat to an independent candidate who successfully petitioned Governor Awiti's election.
With a huge following on the ground, the former lawmaker is the man to beat if Awiti does not appeal the ruling at the Supreme Court.
With the political situation becoming increasingly complicated for the former Prime Minister who is known to be an astute politician, his next decision on the political chessboard will build or destroy his traditional support base. Will he get it right? Only time will tell.