After his recent win against the dominant Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, Ugenya MP David Ochieng is likely to develop some pride and overconfidence with time.
Ochieng was in early April a champion among critics of the ODM, after beating its candidate Chris Karan in a region doubling up as the party leader Raila Odinga's home county.
Consequently, he is likely to develop a notion that he can do even more, which might see him try to pull daring stunts in the future, thinking that his win will always exist.
Ochieng should note that ODM still commands the most support in the region, and considering the humiliation it experienced after the loss, it won't take any chances with him in 2022.
Consequently, Ochieng should not think that he can still ride on his Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) for another win in 2022, and should instead consider joining the ODM side.
It is very likely that he will seek to further strengthen it hoping to enable it to win more seats in 2022, which will most likely hit a wall as ODM now has enough time to prepare to once again capture all the seats in the county.
It is at this point that Ochieng will land with a thud, leading people into thinking that his by-election win was just out of luck.
Also, just like the remaining leaders from the region, he should try to avoid being seen associating with leaders considered hard sells in the area, or risk losing the seat.
As a man whose win has been associated with Deputy President William Ruto, he has to work hard to clean himself of the tag, failure to which he might lose the seat again in 2022.
Finally, the youthful MP should not make any attempts to go for a higher seat, as he currently stands no chance of winning a bigger seat in the county, and should be patient, at least until 2027.
A shot at the Senatorial seat could see him face off with the likes of Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo and Opiyo Wandayi (Ugunja), who might be almost impossible to defeat.
On the other hand, a shot at the gubernatorial seat might see him race against area Senator James Orengo and former Rarieda MP Fred Gumbo where he also stands no chance.
Therefore, an attempt to get a higher seat might land him in the political cold, rendering him less relevant, which will make it harder for him to bounce back in 2027.