Political formations and alliances for the 2022 general elections are already in the making thanks to the heating referendum debate.
On one side of the referendum is President Uhuru Kenyatta, opposition leader Raila Odinga and Wiper chief Kalonzo Musyoka among other opposition figures and their allies.
This is because apart from distancing himself from the DP despite initially vowing to endorse him in 2022, Uhuru has twice declared his support for changes that will give rise to a more inclusive government.
On the opposing side is Deputy President William Ruto who happens to be standing alone, and can only brag of the backing of his foot soldiers.
As was the case in 2005 and 2010, it's very likely that the pro-change side will team up with the intention of pushing it through and end up in a coalition.
The single man Ruto will not be in any position to beat the three leaders with their head in one place in a clean election, and cannot even attempt to engage in any electoral mischief.
With him on one side and the three on the other, it is very likely that he will lose by a big margin but the worst he can be is the first runners up.
Therefore, the apparent union building up will force him into the opposition and might be the official opposition leader should the referendum push manifest.
It is very likely that some of his supporters will begin abandoning him from the referendum point, finding it useless siding with a losing man.
If the referendum passes, he will lack the moral authority and courage to crisscross the country seeking to lead under a system he opposed.
Ruto should also take lessons from his predecessors and note that only one Vice President managed to ascend to the top seat, this being Daniel Moi in 1978.
Unless he devises a very solid and clever mechanism of disrupting the upcoming union, he will not make it in 2022.
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