If the proposal to amend the 2010 Constitution succeeds, opposition chief Raila Odinga may again be on the ballot in 2022.
And if he takes his fifth stub at the presidency during the poll, his main challenger will be Deputy President William Ruto, the man who has set his eyes on succeeding President Uhuru Kenyatta when his term ends.
However, although Ruto may give Raila a run for his money during the election in some regions including Rift Valley and Mt Kenya regions, what is clear is that there are counties where the DP will out-rightly lose the vote to Raila.
These counties include Kisumu, Siaya, Migori, Homa Bay and Nairobi.
In the first four counties, Ruto will lose as the devolved units constitute Raila's strongest support base.
During the 2007, 2013 and 2017 general poll, the opposition leader was voted for almost to the last man in these counties. He commands a large following there and is likely to scoop more than 90 percent of the votes in the four counties.
Ruto will receive very minimal votes in Nyanza because residents of the four lakeside counties see him a stumbling block to Raila's quest to become President. Voters here also have never fully supported the Jubilee administration which Ruto belongs to.
Nairobi, on the other hand, is the county with the highest number of elites who are never swayed by political waves. Traditionally, voters in Nairobi have voted for the opposition and this is why Raila received more votes than former President Mwai Kibaki in 2007 and Uhuru Kenyatta in both 2013 and 2017.
Voters in Nairobi, again, mostly subscribe to left-wing politics and their close association with Raila may give the former Langata MP more votes than Ruto in 2022.
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