Opinion polls have already started trickling in earnest, all showing the ever-increasing popularity of one Dr William Samoei Ruto. Everything seems to be going well for a man who has shown that he can mingle with the society’s lowliest – the 'hoi polloi'.
For his exploits in the political scene, DP Ruto is now the most preferred candidate ahead of the enigma of Kenya politics, Raila Odinga.
As far the Kenyan politics is concerned, at least at the moment, Dr Ruto is the only candidate that has openly declared his intentions to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. For that matter, all his actions are now interpreted as campaigns.
However, the opinion polls should not fool Dr Ruto that all is well. If any man can be a perfect example of how opinion polls can mislead, then that man is Raila Odinga. In the year 2007, he was widely considered as the next president based on opinion polls. I do not want to dwell on what transpired after that.
In all Kenya’s elections, opinion polls have never been a yardstick that correctly measures a politician's chances of occupying an office. Sometimes they mislead, where many may even view it as a propaganda tool.
The questions that often arise from opinion polls are: who are these people who offer their opinions? Are these opinion polls credible? Is there a possibility that these polls are sponsored?
Many Kenyans can attest that they have never encountered people asking them what they think of certain politicians. As far as they are concerned the respondents of political opinion polls are ghosts that seek to misrepresent the perceptions of politicians among the public.
Consequently, Dr Ruto should not be fooled by the polls. In as much as they may embolden his support base, it may not represent the true picture across the country. opinion polls have over time proven wrong during the actual elections.
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