Luo Nyanza region has traditionally been the political bedrock of opposition leader Raila Odinga.
However, going by the recent senatorial by-election in Migori in which ODM candidate Ochillo Ayacko defeated his closest rival Eddy Oketch of the Federal Party of Kenya with a margin of approximately 15,000 votes there are clear indicators that ODM's popularity in the lakeside region could as well be fading away.
Ayacko won the vote with slightly over 85,000 votes against Oketch's close to 61,000. This was despite the ODM brigade's spirited efforts to ensure Ayacho won the ballot with a bigger margin.
They staged cut-throat campaigns in the last days of the exercise.
Ayacko, a seasoned politician clinched victory having been aided in campaigns by ODM heavyweights including Raila himself, Suna East MP Junet Mohammed and Suba South MP and Parliament Minority Leader John Mbadi.
There were claims that Oketch, a 27-year-old upcoming politician received funding from Deputy President William Ruto and this included a helicopter which he used to hop from one village to the other in the last days of the campaigns.
Ruto's handlers, however, denied the allegations.
If this is true, then Ruto has every reason to smile- that he has begun to eat up Raila's support base slowly.
And this coupled with embattled Migori Governor Okoth Obado's woes, the DP may as well receive more votes than any other presidential candidate in the county come 2022.
Obado is the only Luo Nyanza governor who is directly warming up to Ruto and this was seen when the former Eldoret North MP visited Migori where the county chief received him.
Obado is presently not in a good relationship with the ODM party.
Migori is also inhabited by members of the Kuria community who have traditionally supported Jubilee.
The community occupies Kuria West and Kuria East represented in Parliament by Jubilee MPs - Mathias Robi and Maisori Kitayama respectively.
Ruto thus only needs to scoop a sizable number votes in constituencies inhabited by the Luo to take over control of Migori.
Other prominent leaders in Migori in support of Ruto are former MPs Martin Ogindo (Rangwe) and Edick Anyang'a (Nyatike).#hivisasaoriginal