Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho is among those warming up to take over from President Uhuru Kenyatta come 2022. 

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He has the charisma but losing Malindi Member of Parliament, Aisha Jumwa, will kill his presidential dream.

For one to succeed in Kenyan politics, you need tribal backing besides money and oratory skills. Unfortunately, Joho does not have numbers from his Swahili community to push his presidential ambition. 

He has to depend on the regional numbers at the coast that is also not enough compared to those in Nyanza, Western, Central, and Rift Valley. Losing Jumwa will reduce this population, crippling his ability to deal by any opponent fronted from the mentioned regions.

If ODM finalises expelling Jumwa from the party, she will leave with Msambweni’s Suleiman Dori, her friends, and sympathizers. Unfortunately, Dori is the Coast Parliamentary Group chairperson. He has a voice in coastal politics that saw him fronted to lead this group. This is a loss that is not healthy for Joho’s 2022 target.

Joho should revisit the function Ruto graced at Vanga Grounds, Kwale County on 

July 7, 2018

. Jumwa was the vocal one but ODM was well represented. Owen Baya from Kilifi North was present as well as Raila Odinga’s former ally Khatib Mwashetani (Lunga Lunga MP).

Others from the region present were Kilifi Women Representative Gertrude Mbeyu with her Taita Taveta counterpart Lydia Haika. Lamu East MP Sharif Athman, Kinango’s Benjamin Tayari as well as Galole’s Hiribae Buya were also present and Jumwa can desert with a good fraction of these leaders.

ODM does not have an absolute surety of retaining the Malindi parliamentary seat should they expel Jumwa leading to a by-election. 

In case Jumwa manages to embarrass ODM as Mwashetani did in the last polls, Joho will be on the receiving end from this coast political lioness.