Monday's decision by President Uhuru Kenyatta to extend the term of Chief of Defense Forces General Samson Mwathethe by one year is an indication that the career military officer will retire in May 2020 if all factors remain constant.
President Uhuru Kenyatta evoked KDF act of 2012 to extend Mwathethe's term; technically because Kenya is in war with Al-Shabaab militants in Somalia. Besides the war, political uncertainty can force the president to extend the term of CDF.
"H. E Uhuru Kenyatta, the President of the Republic of Kenya and Commander-in-Chief of armed forces, in consultations with National Defense Council, has extended the term of Chief of Defense Forces General Mwathethe for one year effective 6th May," read a memo by Ministry of Defense.
The extension of Mwathethe's term technically ended illustrious military careers of his likely successors Lt General Robert Kibochi and Lt General Leonard Ngondi. While Kibochi serves as Vice Chief of Defense Forces, Ngondi is AU-UN Humid Commander in Darfur. They have both hit 60.
According to Tonje Rules, christined after former CDF General Daudi Tonje, a Lt General retires from the military upon reaching 60 years if he/she is not promoted to the next rank. This applies now to the two generals.
When they exit in the next few months, President Uhuru Kenyatta is expected to reshuffle the military where promotions and appointments are expected. Mwathethe's replacement will come from Kenya Army given the rotational tradition that has been practiced since 2000.
At the pole position will be Lt General Walter Raria, the current Army Commander who was promoted to the rank last year. Mr Raria sits in the National Defense Council which extended Mwathethe's term.
The biggest beneficiary in Monday promotions was Major General Adan Mulata, who was promoted to Lt General and appointed Commandant National Defense College. NDC is the most lucrative KDF training center. From NDC, General Mulata could rival Raria for Vice Chief of Defense Forces when Lt General Robert Kibochi retires this year.
However, Uhuru will be expected to look at the education level, rank and military record of the two. Usually, military traditions will not allow Uhuru to pick from outside the two. When either of them takes over, he will be tasked to oversee transition in 2022 when Uhuru retires.
Officers who were promoted from Brigadier to Major General ranks include: Joseph Mutui ( General Officer Commanding Western Command), Maina Mwangi (Assistant Chief of Defense Forces in charge of Operations, Training and Doctrine), Albert Kiprop ( Commandant Kenya Military College).
Others are: George Kiguta (Director of Medical Services), Abdalla Badi (Senior Directing Staff Air, NDC), Martin Kizito (Commandant Defense Staff College) and Mohammed Farah (Director of Military Intelligence).