By-election talks emerged in Malindi barely a week ago after the ODM National Executive Council (NEC) adopted the disciplinary committee report that recommended for the expulsion of area MP Aisha Jumwa from the party after having warned her against her support for Deputy President William Ruto.

Since then, by-election talks have not stopped even after Jumwa assured the residents that there will be no election in Malindi. 

Thinking about a by-election on a different angle, if her victory will be nullified, Jumwa might not retain her seat because of the following reasons:

1. Picking a fight with Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho

She said it is Joho who is making her face the problems she is currently having. She even said she will deal with Joho by herself if he crosses her path. This move might see her lose in a by-election considering Joho is regarded as the Coast political kingpin. It becomes hard to win against somebody they are considered powerful.

2. Contesting for a seat in an ODM zone

In case of a by-election, she will have to join another party, which will probably mean she will be vying against a preferred ODM candidate who will be getting support from party leader Raila Odinga, and deputy party leader Joho.

They will not allow their ODM seat in Parliament to get away easily.

3.  Accusing Joho of  supplying drugs

Politicians like Kapseret Member of Parliament Oscar Sudi might want to see Joho arrested because they believe by doing so they will be supporting their ally, Deputy President William Ruto. Jumwa supported them, saying Joho should be arrested over the matter. This might not go down well with some voters in Malindi who see Joho as their main man in Kenyan politics. 

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