The Kibra parliamentary seat is for the Raila Odinga-led Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party to lose, political commentator Wycliffe Muga has opined.
Muga said the constituency has always been represented by the opposition and therefore historical voting pattern makes Kibra a 'safe seat' for ODM.
He also said it was almost given Raila's party will emerge victorious due to the relationship between its candidate and the immediate MP Ken Okoth who passed on two months ago.
"Kenyans also tend to vote for candidates who are related to their recently deceased leader, when it comes to by-elections. So, Imran Okoth, brother of the late MP for Kibra, has a strong wind blowing in his favour," Muga wrote in an opinion piece published by the Star, on Thursday.
Noting it was impossible for the by-election to be rigged, the analyst, however, cautioned that 'slightest carelessness' by the Orange party will hand victory to McDonald Mariga of the ruling outfit.
"But it will take just the slightest carelessness by ODM to overturn these established patterns. So, the candidate for the President’s Jubilee Party can just as easily end up winning," he stated.
Muga disagreed with political analysts claiming the Kibra outcome will indicate the likely fortunes of Deputy President William Ruto and Raila in the next general election.
Ruto, who reportedly pushed Mariga to the race, is said to be planning to use Kibra contest to measure his political muscle against the ODM boss, his likely opponent in the 2022 polls.
"This by-election will tell us nothing about the 2022 presidential election. As I said, when it comes to presidential elections, a different logic applies," Muga added.