Allies of President Uhuru Kenyatta have speculated that he might join hands with his former critic and ODM leader Raila Odinga ahead of the 2022 general elections.
The latest remarks were made by former Gatanga MP David Murathe, a close ally of Uhuru, who on Sunday hinted that they might go for Prime Minister and president seats respectively.
However, would a Uhuru-Raila union deliver a win in the 2022 polls, especially after a referendum with Deputy President William Ruto on the other side? Yes it would and here is why:
1. They control three quarters of the vote
It would, because the two control almost three quarters of the country's vote, as was demonstrated in the 2017 elections.
While Raila controls Nyanza, and parts of Western Kenya and Coast, Uhuru will be bringing with him the majority of Central Kenya votes.
Others would argue that Ruto's invasion in Mt Kenya, where he seems to be enjoying some support from MPs, will upset this arithmetic.
Should Murathe's prediction be the case, the region will abandon Ruto, as the best deal they can get from him will be the Deputy President slot. On the other hand, Uhuru will be offering them the powerful Prime Minister slot.
Its also worth noting that Uhuru enjoys the backing of the majority of the Mt Kenya governors, who have not been silent on Ruto's bid.
While Ruto might think that he has the backing of the people closest to the locals, the MPs, the Tangatanga group is losing relevance due to its unending politicking, three years to the polls.
Their reckless talk and attacks on other leaders are also making them appear less serious leaders, which will with time see locals cease listening to them, a blow to the DP.
Even if Ruto brings in Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and ANC's Musalia Mudavadi, he still stands slim chances as the same group worked with Raila in 2017 and lost.
2. State power
In Kenya, its almost useless waging a war against the powers that be. The 2022 campaigns will be done while Uhuru is still in power, and given that he controls the ministries, it is np brainer that he holds a lot of influence in how campaigns run.
By then, judging by the pressure, it's likely that the referendum will have been conducted and changes implemented, which means that the seats being fought for will be already known.
No matter how big Ruto's team will be, he will stand slim chances of winning, as he will be battling the state.
If Raila, with all the 42 ethnic communities lost to Mwai Kibaki, who only had one group behind him in 2007, then what will happen to Ruto who will be battling a strong UhuRaila union?
3. Desire to be on the winning side
In the instance that Murathe's prophesy comes to pass, and Raila and Uhuru end up on the same side, that will be the beginning of Ruto's defeat, even before the polls are held.
The two are already known for their political muscles and influence, and their union will see many Kenyans who would have supported Ruto join their side just to be on the winning side.