Despite a strong diplomatic campaign by Kenya, the country’s Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed might not clinch the President seat at the African Union (AU).
During the elections scheduled for January 2017, Amina will be contesting against the odds and the country might after all not get the highly anticipated bargaining powers because of three major reasons.
According to International Relations expert Willis Maganda, the AU already has a sitting deputy chairperson from Kenya and this will be a leading setback. Unless AU Deputy President Erastus Mwencha resigns from his position, it is unlikely that the African states will accept to have two Kenyans at the helm of the continental administration.
Second, the outgoing chair Dlamini Nkosazana Zuma is a woman. It is also unlikely that another woman will inherit the same position in succession. A number of states are expected to contest this, and so any male candidate will automatically have an upper hand over Amina.
Lastly, Kenya recently pulled her forces out from South Sudan. This was an action done in haste and analysts have seen it as a dark spot to Kenya’s foreign policy which falls under Amina’s feet. Should January come before better reasons are given to other states, Amina’s dream of sitting at the top are as good as over.