Talk is rife within the political circles of a possible alliance between President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga ahead of the 2022 general elections.
Both allies of Uhuru, like former Gatanga MP David Murathe and his critics like Kandara MP Alice Wahome, have observed that the two are working closely together after their 2018 trice.
And judging by the tribal mode of the Kenyan politics, this would directly refer to a tribal alliance of the Mt Kenya and Luo Nyanza regions where the two leaders hail from.
Though this alliance looks very promising, especially with the input of Raila who enjoys backing from many parts of the country, the two might have it hard selling it in Nyanza.
Here are the three reasons why apart from Mt Kenya, where Raila is a total hardshell, such an alliance might not be fully accepted in Luo Nyanza and should be carefully scrutinized first.
1. Lessons from the past
The Luo community has more than twice suffered, betrayed to be precise, by top leaders from the Mt Kenya region, and ironically, all the times, the betrayal came from presidents.
Even after rejecting the presidency in his favour, founding father Jomo Kenyatta betrayed his first Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, which saw Oginga subjected to frustrations, leading to his (Oginga's) 1966 resignation.
In 2002, Raila joined hands with former President Mwai Kibaki who proceeded to win the presidency only for them to fall out years later.
In 2007, Raila accused Kibaki of rigging him out. It's worth noting that Raila had even taken charge of Kibaki's campaigns after his involvement in a road accident weeks to the poll.
This further worsened the Luo-Kikuyu political relationship and intensified the political suspicion between the two groups.
It will be rather hard for the region and Raila's supporters at large to trust another Luo-Kikuyu union for fear of another betrayal.
2. Uhuru will be fresh from another betrayal
Should the two decide to work together in the isolation of Deputy President William Ruto, this will be a direct hint that Raila will be once again betrayed in the few coming years.
Already, Uhuru appears to have reneged on his earlier promise to endorse Ruto.
And if he can abandon the man who helped propel him to power when he was facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) what prevents him from another betrayal now that he is safe?
Though Raila can easily whip his allies into backing the alliance, which some (of the allies) are already glorifying, it will take some effort to woo ordinary Kenyans allied to Raila.
3. The belief that they are being badly used
In the event that the BBI constitutional changes introduce a Prime Ministerial seat and Uhuru goes for it, and on the other hand, Raila goes for lesser powerful Presidential seat, then Uhuru's people will be the biggest beneficiaries.
Such a setup will make Raila more of a dummy, and his people voting machines just being used to benefit Uhuru by keeping him in power.
Though Raila's supporters will for the first time taste the presidential feeling, most of the effort will be benefiting another person, who will be holding the most powerful seat.
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