Contrary to his 2017 vow to endorse Deputy President William Ruto as his successor in the 2022 polls, President Uhuru Kenyatta appears very unlikely to keep his promise ahead of the polls.

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Instead, he is more likely to endorse his new ally Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga, thanks to their ongoing dalliance, which seems to have isolated the DP.

He has already inflicted too much hope in Raila's supporters, who believe that their dalliance will result in an endorsement, and this would make him a villain should he make a u-turn.

He will appear an insincere man who took advantage of the veteran politician to calm the political temperatures in the nation to enable him to rule peacefully, which will negatively affect the legacy he seeks to leave.

He also has a good reason to stick to Raila who has remained supportive to his leadership than Ruto who had defied his anti-politicking orders, and who is making it hard for him to achieve his agenda.

On the other hand, Ruto seems very unlikely to win in the polls, thanks to his many corruption allegations, which makes Uhuru more cautious in a bid to avoid the humiliation Moi faced in 2002.

It's worth noting that ex-President Daniel Moi endorsed Uhuru in 2002 but he ended up losing to Mwai Kibaki, which gave Moi a more uncomfortable and disgraceful retirement.

He has a better option in Raila who appears stronger, judging by his national backing and millions of diehard supporters as he has proved in his four previous presidential bids.

Ruto, on the other hand, is facing so many hurdles and opposition, including in his own Rift Valley region, making him not the right man to back.

There is also political pity, where Raila might be favoured on the ground as some Kenyans argue he should enjoy the presidency at least once before his looming retirement.

It is also worth noting that the Kenyatta and Oginga families have a long history, dating back to the 1960s, which Uhuru is very unlikely to let Ruto, a new entrant, break.