Whether it was a written memorandum of understanding or just a gentleman's agreement, almost every Jubilee supporter knows that the party was supposed to rule Kenya for the next 20 years beginning from 2013.

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According to President Uhuru Kenyatta who was very vocal throughout his first term and during his re-election campaigns, he was to rule for 10 years while Ruto was to take over immediately after him and steer the country for another decade.

However, Uhuru has gone silent on his succession debate opting to build his legacy through his Big Four Agenda, the Building Bridges Initiative and the anti-graft war. 

As a result, the Jubilee Party has turned into a theatre of madness as Uhuru is constantly pestered to declare whether his political 'vows and promises' to Ruto are still viable.

Since he won't declare who he will endorse as his successor, let's focus on a likely scenario where he decides to walk out on Ruto by basically not rallying his supporters behind Ruto's 2022 maiden presidential bid. What excuses would he use?

1. National unity

It will be hard for Uhuru to convince many Kenyans that he was truly committed to leaving behind a united nation if come 2022 he throws his weight behind Ruto.

It would even be better for him to exit silently and let the best candidate win. As you know, they say Kenya doesn't belong to two communities. This is true and the reason behind the saying is also true as regards to the presidency.

2. Jubilee administration was based on an intra-party power-sharing formula

Former Jubilee Party Vice Chairman David Murathe at the beginning of this year told a local TV station that Ruto was given among other things cabinet portfolios, parastatal appointments and ambassadorial posts to fill in with his preferred candidates.

As such, Uhuru can argue that his relationship with Ruto was a symbiotic one based on give and take.

3. History of broken political memoranda in Kenya

Uhuru will not be reinventing any wheel if come 2022, he decides to rubbish his written or unwritten memorandum of understanding with his deputy. It has happened before and not once, not twice, but severally.

Former President Mwai Kibaki did it to Raila Odinga after the 2002 polls, Uhuru pulled one on Musalia Mudavadi in the run-up to the 2013 polls, Raila did it to Kalonzo Musyoka in the run-up to 2017 election and many other examples.

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