The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party is slowly coming to terms with the double defeat in Embakasi South and Ugenya by-elections.

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Despite the Raila Odinga-led Orange party conceding defeat, he (Raila) has been quoted saying that it was not a big deal for the party to lose.

Nonetheless, even as the dust settles on the Embakasi South and Ugenya by-elections, Raila’s party is looking forward to the Wajir West by-election set for April 25.

ODM could be seeking to redeem itself in the Wajir by-election but the ground is too competitive to guarantee a win for ODM.

Raila’s party is likely to suffer the same fate as it did in the Embakasi South and Ugenya by-elections.

Here is why it will be difficult for ODM to win the Wajir West by-election.

1. Jubilee dominance

Wajir West falls in the North Eastern region that is largely dominated by the ruling Jubilee Party.

In the 2017 general election, Jubilee Party clinched majority seats in the region.

Garissa Township MP Aden Duale has since said that the region is purely Jubilee and ODM should brace for humiliation in the April 25 by-election.

Jubilee’s dominance saw Ahmed Kolosh whose election was nullified by the Supreme Court ditch ODM to join President Uhuru Kenyatta’s party.

Last week, Kolosh met with President Kenyatta at State House to plan the campaigns ahead of the by-election.

2. Campaign resources 

The Jubilee Party can easily boast of campaign resources owing to the fact it is the ruling party.

The party is likely not to struggle to campaign for Kolosh.

On the other hand, it is likely to be difficult for ODM in terms of pooling resources for campaigns owing to the fact that the party is fresh from the recent by-elections in Embakasi South and Ugenya.

3. Candidate’s popularity

ODM settled on Mohamed Yusuf as its candidate after Kolosh ditched the party.

Yusuf is not that popular in the Wajir West political circles and he needs an intensive door- to- door campaigns for locals to know him.

On the other hand, Jubilee’s candidate is familiar within the political circles and his move to quit ODM could be a plus for him.

The Wajir West by-election has been taunted as a two-horse race between Kolosh and Yusuf.

Other candidates cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)  to contest in the by-election are Ali Noor (LPK), Ibrahim Mohamed (KANU) and Abbas Nunow (Agano Party).

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