When President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto defied all odds in 2013 to become the most powerful men in the country, their supporters and opposers got equally surprised.
Uhuru and Ruto were both facing various grave charges at the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) where if both or any of them got convicted would have perhaps spent the rest of their lives in the coolers.
However, all this is now history and the two are already in their second term into the presidency with Uhuru widely expected at least by Jubilee supporters to rally behind Ruto in his maiden presidential bid come 2022.
But as we all know, Uhuru's political pact with Ruto ahead of the 2013 polls has since been complicated by his handshake with opposition leader Raila Odinga that aims at curing the nation of the political malady it always experiences during every electoral cycle.
This, however, may just appear especially among opposition supporters as mere lip service on Uhuru's part if come 2022 he will insist on supporting his deputy for the country's top seat.
There is a possibility of Ruto being convinced or being forced to accept a quadripartite political pact that brings him together with Raila, Kalonzo and Uhuru's political successor in Mt Kenya politics.
Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that Ruto will agree to such a political arrangement that does not have him as the flag bearer of the prospective coalition or party.
In such a circumstance, Ruto may opt to go it alone while seeking support from other like-minded politicians opposed to or disgruntled with the political pact.
But would Ruto have the chances to make it to the top office if he was to choose such a political path? The answer is no!
The simple reason is in such an occurrence, the Uhuru-Raila 'coalition' would most likely seek to woo Ruto's bitter political rival in Rift Valley politics, Senator Gideon Moi.
Moi who has repeatedly said that he would be on the presidential ballot come 2022, would most likely cut a sizeable chunk of Ruto's home turf vote especially from the South Rift which would undoubtedly complicate his chances of winning.
Ruto would also be likely sold to voters by the Uhuru-Raila side as a selfish politician who is just concerned about his political gains at the expense of national unity.
In fact, the political loss that Ruto would suffer from such a political miscalculation would be so bad that his chances of ever becoming a tenant at the house on the hill would be as good as shuttered forever.
However, Ruto is known to be a political genius and you don't expect him to take a political path that is likely to lead him to political abyss.
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