In a household where both the husband and wife are perpetually fighting even over small things, no rocket science is required to tell where the couple will end.
Similarly, the ongoing quarrels inside Jubilee Party pitting President Uhuru Kenyatta's camp and that of his deputy, William Ruto, may be a signal of bigger and bitter things to come as we march to 2022.
From Uhuru-Raila handshake, the fight against corruption, Mau evictions to lifestyle audit; none of them has gone unchallenged especially by the camp allied to Ruto.
While we could be reading too much into these squabbles, a wise man will tell you that there is no smoke without fire.
The Jubilee ship is evidently sinking from the weight of these quarrels, but there seem to be no much efforts being put to save it from the impending disaster.
But why are these fights a threat to Jubilee's survival as 2022 approaches? And why could Jubilee crumble down before the next general election?
First, Jubilee was a marriage of convenience built on a foundation of sand. It was a marriage of convenience as the main reason UhuRuto came together in 2013 was mainly that of the ICC issue.
Forget about the peace narrative! It is all hogwash. The ICC cases that sired Jubilee are now gone and so is everything else that was a by-product.
The party was built on a foundation of sand because there was no actual reconciliation between the individual community members who really bore the brunt of the 2007/2008 post-election skirmishes. It was simply Uhuru-Ruto deal.
No wonder 'we forgave but didn't forget' phrase is gaining momentum now.
Secondly, Uhuru and Ruto are seemingly steering the ship to the opposite directions. While Uhuru is concerned about the legacy he will leave behind after 10 years, Ruto's eyes are fixed on 2022.
How do you expect the two captains to deliver the ship home when each is using a different map?
Thirdly, the Uhuru-Raila truce just complicated matters. The Ruto camp feels that the controversial handshake could have more than meets the eye.
After all, was it not done without Ruto's knowledge? There is no unforgivable sin in marriage apart from infidelity. So is the "political infidelity" that Uhuru committed to Ruto can only serve as a catalyst to Jubilee's death.
Finally, the conspiracy theories surrounding Uhuru succession politics makes Jubilee's survival in 2022 even harder.
For instance, the first family is said to prefer Gideon Moi as Uhuru's successor than Ruto. Unless Uhuru comes out to clear the air, this narrative will continue to gain momentum and spell doom for Jubilee.
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