Crowd at Tononoka grounds, Mombasa during the Sunday Jubilee rally. Photo: Aden Duale/ twitter.com Politics is a game of numbers, he who has the most wins and if Sunday's Jubilee political rally at Tononoka is anything to go by, then it is beyond reasonable doubt that the ruling party is wooing Coast region from her perceived cosy relationship with the opposition.
Political analyst Katana Kazungu of The Star has tried to hypothesise this matter to ascertain why Jubilee is beating NASA in the Coast region.
"The party's rise in this politically hostile region is, in part, attributed to the recent wave of defections by popular politicians from ODM. More than a dozen politicians quit ODM to join Jubilee," said Kazungu.
The number of leaders ditching the opposition for Jubilee are numerous, for instance in Kilifi county, the following have joined Jubilee, Deputy Governor Kenneth Kamto, ODM NEC member Grace Mboja, and aspirant Kenneth Nyale. In Taita Taveta Women rep Joyce lay, Senator Dan Mwazo have also left the orange party.
Kwale county also has its fair share of defectors, Governor Salim Mvurya, Women rep Zainab Chidzuga, MP Gideon Mung'aro and his counterpart Mustafa Idd.
Kazungu said most of the defecting leaders have accused ODM leadership of dictatorship and intolerance.
"The wave of defections has perplexed political watchers who have long held the view that Coast belonged to the opposition," he said.
Kazungu also highlighted three key aspects why ODM is losing ground to Jubilee in the Indian Ocean region.
First, there is the fear of unfair party nominations despite assurances by ODM that the process will be free and fair, second is the politicians fear to compete for nominations in a crowded field which doesn't guarantee them victory in the primaries, Finally the fact that there is massive wave of defections it is assumed that Jubilee Party is financially loaded and has the ability to finance candidates to victory.
However, the big question remains is Jubilee gaining ground in the Coast?