A new analysis by the Standard Media has revealed that NASA can beat Jubilee in the August 8th elections on condition that they record high voter turnout in their strongholds.
After IEBC released the latest figures on voter registration last Tuesday, 3.5 million new voters were registered pushing the total tally of voters to 19.5 million.
Assuming that both Jubilee and NASA maintain the support they had in 2013, then Uhuru's team will scoop 8.5 million votes (49.45 percent) against NASA's 8 million (47.73 percent).
However, if NASA can manage a 100 percent voter turnout in their strongholds out of the existing total number of 19.5 million voters, hypothetically- the opposition could command 9.5 million votes a million more than Jubilee.
The will still call for a runoff since with 9.5 million votes the opposition will have secured 48.72 percent falling short of the 50 plus one requirement by the constitution.
The traditional challenge in Kenya's elections has however been poor voter turnout, a trend that is common worldwide another factor that may affect the hypothesis is the choice of NASA presidential candidate and how the electorate will be lured by both parties manifesto as August beckons.