The fact that NASA leader Raila Odinga is the fulcrum of Nyanza politics is undeniable. Those who attempted to 'undermine' him have been crushed with the 2017 election claiming three victims.
When little-known Agostino Neto was elected Ndhiwa MP in 2012 by-election to replace Orwa Ojode, he was fitting into big political shoes.
The youthful MP, however, failed to last for long as his perceived dalliance with Jubilee spoiled the party for him and was ousted in 2017 by a debutante Martin Owino.
At one point, Neto was seen as a disciple of former Rongo MP Dalmas Otieno who was keen on forming the Kalausi to rival ODM.
Elsewhere, former Ugenya MP David Ochieng, who inherited the seat that was once held by James Orengo, rebelled against his sponsor party, ODM party.
He formed his own political vehicle but the move backfired as he lost to Chris Karan. However, the High Court gave him political lifeline after he successfully petitioned Karan's win.
As to whether he will recapture his seat in the forthcoming by-election remains to be seen. However, what is indisputable is that defying Raila in Nyanza is politically suicidal.