About a month ago, when the IEBC rolled out the voter registration campaign, the former prime minister said the August 8 general election would be won during the exercise of en-listing new voters. [Photo/mwakilishi.com]

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Was CORD leader Raila Odinga predicting his own downfall when he described IEBC’s voter registration campaign as a do-or-die exercise in his quest to become Kenya’s next president? The just concluded mass voter registration countrywide shows that, just like in the 2013 general election, his strongholds registered dismal numbers. “What is the need for me run for the presidency if you have no votes?” Raila recently told supports in Sori area of Migori, as quoted by the Daily Nation. “You people have been embarrassing me,” an emotional Raila added. About a month ago, when the IEBC rolled out the voter registration campaign, the former prime minister said the August 8 general election would be won during the exercise of en-listing new voters. “The coming elections will be won in the next 30 days,” Raila told supporters during a stopover in Kibera, as quoted by the Standard a month ago.“Next polls will be won between now and February 14. I know you are tired with the Jubilee administration. No sleeping, no taking alcohol. It will be a do-or-die for us. We want to see which constituency will list the highest number of new voters,” he said. And now that the voter registration numbers are in, it is clear that President Uhuru Kenyatta’s strongholds registered with a lot of enthusiasm that Raila’s. Many analysts have blamed voter apathy in areas where the opposition leader is popular for his failed attempts to clinch the presidency. Homa Bay County, one of Raila Odinga’s strongholds, registered 67% (85,000) of IEBC’s targeted new voters. Kisii, considered a swing county, but leans towards Mr Odinga, registered only 84,635 new voters, which represents 41% of the electoral body’s target. Musalia Mudavadi’s backyard of Western emerged with the lowest numbers. Vihiga had 28%, Kakamega 39% Bungoma 44% and Busia finished with 45%. In contrast, Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee strongholds saw a high voter turnout, with Kiambu, Kirinyaga and Murang’a registering more than 80% of the targets. During the 2013 general election, political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi famously predicted Uhuru Kenyatta’s win based on voter registration numbers, using the ‘tyranny of numbers’ theory.