Even as the much publicized negotiated democracy in Garissa County gains momentum, Aden Duale remains the biggest loser if parliamentary elections were to be held today.
Given the number of aspirants interested to unseat the Jubilee die hard in the regional politics, it is more obvious that the battle is nothing but a two-horse race considering both political following in the constituency, the ballot contest is expected to be between the incumbent Duale and Farah Maalim from the opposition.
Given the statistics, one of the profound factors that are expected to play a big role in the North Eastern constituency is the clan politics.
Each of the two aspirants has already been endorsed by respective clans. However, Duale's abduwak clan might eventually humiliate one of their own if nothing changes between now and the poll date.
Maalim's and Duale's local clans enjoy almost proportional strengths in the constituency since they carry the same magnitude in terms of numbers.
Incidentally, Abduwak clan that has since backed Duale will offer an advantage to Maalim since the race was joined by newbies who are intentionally willing to split the incumbent's votes and give an early victory to him.
Secondly, minority groups in the constituency are likely to vote for Maalim given the recent defamatory statements uttered by Duale. But because politics is an unstable game of numbers, the poll day will remain to disclose the overall winner of the negotiated democracy.