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OPINION

How ODM may 'die' before 2022

Curtis Otieno
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From left, ODM leaders Hassan Joho, Raila Odinga and Wycliffe Oparanya. They are all keen on vying for presidency on the party ticket in 2022. [Photo/Kenyans.co.ke]

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is set for a terrible collapse.

The Raila Odinga-led party remains one of the strongest political formations in the country but this is bound to change as we approach 2022 elections.

Odinga has openly indicated at riding on the party's ticket for a fifth shot at the presidency after futile attempts in the past, thanks to his sudden political activities and series of reconciliations with former rivals including President Uhuru Kenyatta.

His candidature is, however, going to paralyze and ultimately disintegrate the bloc with his deputy and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya also declaring his ambition for the post on the same ticket.

Being on his way out of elective politics as a result of the looming expiry of his second and last term as county chief, Oparanya has to either go for a lesser seat or the presidency and having settled for the top seat, he will move out of the party should he be denied the green light in search of other avenues.

His exodus alongside his allies and supporters will further weaken the party and Odinga in vote-rich Western Kenya region where he is already having problems following his recent fallout with his National Super Alliance (NASA) co-leaders Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula.

Also keen to join the race is Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho, who just like Oparanya, deputizes the veteran politician in ODM and is also eyeing the presidency.

The vocal coastal governor brings with him millions of votes from the region and his appeal among the youth will as well make him move out upon being denied the ticket, a move that will weaken the party in the Coast.

The situation will even be pathetic should all the three remain steadfast to go for the seat. It will split the opposition bloc into three rendering ODM completely destroyed and unable to make any effect in the poll.

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-Curtis Otieno

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