As 2022 succession politics continue to elicit mixed reactions from both the opposition and ruling side, one of the possible scenarios in 2022 is Former Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga backing Deputy William Ruto for the nation’s top seat. That said, Ruto will lose if he picks Raila as his running mate when that time comes.
First and foremost, Ruto is facing a rebellion in the Rift Valley region. Baringo Senator Gideon Moi has said it repeatedly that he will contest for the nation’s top seat. There are minimal chances that Moi will support Ruto in 2022 considering the past relations. Former President Daniel Torotich Arap Moi will also remain a man to watch in the race to power. Moi does not enjoy a 'cordial' relationship with both Raila and Ruto. The Moi family is likely to turn against Ruto.
Secondly, the Ruto, Odinga combination is likely to force the Kikuyu community to think twice. Where will be the place of the Kikuyu in the new formation? History shows that this community has been voting for one of their own. This is likely to be the same case when that time comes. The leaders from this community are likely to front their own.
Thirdly, the Luhya factor cannot be ignored in the race to succeed Uhuru. It seems all is not well with the Luhya leaders- Senator Moses Wetangula and ANC Leader Musalia Mudavadi and former Prime Minister. These leaders are likely to rally their people behind any other candidate in order to disapprove Odinga.
We can't also ignore that they tried and failed. Ruto and Odinga contested as a team in 2007 but they failed to defeat Former President Mwai Kibaki. Although the election had disputes, history can repeat itself.
Ruto will not, therefore, see State House if he picks Raila as his running mate. If the current political situation is anything we can go by, Ruto is not at peace in his backyard. Senator Moi and Former Governor Ruto might prove him wrong. The displacement of the Kikuyu will always do Ruto injustice. The duo tried and terribly failed despite crying foul.
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