NASA principals when they signed an agreement. The four are running to become the coalition's presidential flag bearer. [Photo/nation.co.ke] 

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Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi says the NASA principals must run for president separately in order to force a run-off in the August presidential election.

Mr Ngunyi, known for correctly predicting the 2013 presidential victory for President Uhuru Kenyatta using the ‘tyranny of numbers theory’, says he expects ODM leader Raila Odinga to be the NASA presidential candidate.

“If Raila is not the NASA candidate, he’ll have performed a miracle,” Ngunyi said in his weekly political analysis, dubbed ‘The 5th Fifth Estate’ on YouTube, adding that miracles do not happen in politics.

“Their best option (for the NASA principals) is to run separately, and then force a run-off,” Ngunyi argues.

“In this situation, the winner amongst them will become the NASA candidate.”

“Raila must run for president under ODM, Kalonzo under Wiper and Mudavadi under whatever party,” another analyst in the video says.

Fork Kenya leader Moses Wetangula, Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and ODM party leader Raila Odinga have all indicated they expect to be NASA’s presidential flagbearer.

Recent opinion polls have President Uhuru Kenyatta firmly in the lead in the presidential election, but a scenario where the NASA principals run separately in the first round may deny the president the 50+1 votes he needs to get a second term, some analysts argue.

“If NASA uses the NARC model of 2002, they’ll lose,” Mr Ngunyi adds.  “But if the they use the FORD formula of 1992, where they run separately and come together during a run-off, I think they have a chance of winning this election.”

Instead of fighting for positions under NASA, another political analyst in the video argues, one of the NASA bosses should approach Jubilee and negotiate for a position, since the (Jubilee) party only has President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto as the only principals. 

“The NASA principals should negotiate for positions on the Jubilee side. The first one to do so will change the course of county. ”