NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga with DP William Ruto(out of focus). [Photo/politics.co.ke]
Ask any sane politician in Kenya what it takes to win a political office and one dominant answer will always be the importance of tyranny of numbers both at rallies and the ballot papers on polling day.
On Sunday, the National Super Alliance (NASA) managed to pull thousands at the Kapsabet ASK showground despite the heavy downpour just to listen to the coalition leaders in an area perceived as a Jubilee Party stronghold.
According to political analyst Kibisu Kabatesi the crowd at Kapsabet ASK grounds should not be dismissed lightly despite the mad minutes when a group of youths chanting Jubilee slogans throngedthe event to derail the NASA team while making an address at the venue.
Kabatesi singles out the unsatisfactory Jubilee primaries in the region as one of the reason the Kalenjin nation is gravitating towards the NASA outfit.
"Something akin to a political tectonic shift out of pent-up anger is brewing in Kalenjin-speaking populations. The Jubilee nominations have left a bitter aftertaste all over. A straw poll revealsa community seething against what they consider imposed leadership," said Kabatesi.
The people of the Rift feel like one of their own, the son of Sugoi Deputy President William Ruto has plotted against a majority of their incumbent leaders and imposed a new crop of leaders, hence they are keen to punish the DP for what they consider as his high-handedness in the Rift politics.
"Ruto is accused of double-standards — while he has no time for independents in the Mt Kenya region, he cuddles them against Jubilee candidates, the majority of whom are incumbents, in his backyard," he said.
"The dicey situation for the DP in the North Rift is such that mutineers now pledge support for Uhuru’s reelection 2017, but are quiet on Ruto’s 2022 quest. They choose instead to blame an unnamed leader’s scheme to defeat the people’s right to choose their leaders," he added.
Kabatesi also hypothises that another reason the Kalenjin community is singing NASA anthem is the unsure whether the Nyumba ya Mumbi will back them up in 2022 given their history of rallying behind their own over the years.
"Another sinker is the Kalenjin community sees no chance of reciprocity from Mt Kenya, given the latter’s aversion to voting for anyone other than their own. The Kalenjin are, therefore, not willing to be ostracised in future for the overbearing transgressions of one individual. They are readying to jettison from the Jubilee bandwagon soon through a slate of their own new leaders not beholden to Ruto," he said.
Finally Kabatesi blames DP Ruto claiming his miscalculations and arrogance of wanting it all is the reason the Kalenjin nation is singing NASA tunes in a Jubilee stronghold
"The Kalenjin are known as keepers of secrets; they’re unlikely to shout slogans as they are known to clap gently in salutation. They wouldn’t be loud about their electoral choices until it’s done. But for those who study social phenomena, certainly something is cooking in the Rift," said Kabatesi.