In 2013, Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the president with 50.51 per, while Raila Odinga was confirmed the principal opposition leader with 47.67 per cent of the total votes cast, leaving Mr. Musalia Mudavadi a distant third with a paltry 3.96 per cent of the total votes.
It is worth to note that Musalia, the third candidate in those polls was considered a serious politician who had held influential posts in the country including being a former Local government minister, former Finance Minister, former Deputy Premier, former Vice Presidential among other key posts and he was a leader of his own party the Amani National Congress (ANC).
Inspite of all the above accolades, Musalia still failled lamentably in the presidential polls.
As late as November 2012, Mudavadi looked as if he might be the establishment's favored candidate.
He was then joined by other seasoned politicians such as Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua, who both enjoyed an impressive track record, a national profile, and significant media coverage, but the latter two failed spectacularly in that they did not obtain even a meagre 1 per cent of the popular vote.
Statistics show many middle class Kikuyu voters, who were initially supportive of Mr. Kenneth, ended up voting for Mr. Kenyatta.
Kenneth and Karua were widely perceived as ‘fresh options, able to turn Kenyan politics into a new direction’.
However, as the election fever gathered storm, the electorate felt pressurised into voting for Kenyatta- as a vote against the International Criminal Court (ICC), presumably in defence of Kenya's sovereignty, but majorly as a way of blockig Odinga.
Research in the populous and vote-rich Rift Valley shows reveals that the Jubilee alliance peddled this ICC narrative so passionately and managed to persuade the majority of the residents- both Kalenjin and Kikuyu- to vote for ‘Uhuruto’ and against Odinga.
The apt lesson therefore of anybody who aspires to vie against Kenyatta and Odinga in next year's election that they will be in for a rude shock.
Precisely put, even if your supporters and fanatical sycophants deceive you that you are the best candidate, they are unlikely to vote for you if they feel that you are unlikely to win against a Kenyatta or an Odinga.
As long as voting continues to be as much about trying to ensure the ‘oponent’ does not triumph, as it is about trying to ensure one of your ‘own’ gets into State house, third force candidates have no slim chance in Kenya's voting psyche