Nairobi based political analyst Martin Andati argues that the National Super Alliance (NASA) principals will lose and sink into irrelevance soon.
Andati says he has seen in it all, how Raila met Musalia Mudavadi to talk about working together in the 2017 elections, but their fallout in 2012 still triggered difficulties in the two ever reaching an agreement.
The analyst says this pushed Raila to camp two nights at COTU Secretary General Fancis Atwoli's Kajiado home to try and persuade him convince Mudavadi to come work with him again.
A deal was struck and a coronation took place in Kakamega's Masinde Muliro gardens.
In their agreement, Raila team thought Mudavadi was coming to support Odinga's presidential bid, while the ANC leader team thought Mudavadi will be the opposition's presidential candidate.
Andati says a jubilant Mudavadi team set out and started telling the Mulembe community that thei son will be the flagbearer in 2017 and the lie spread like wild fire in the community.
But now here we are, a stalemate has ensued, Kalonzo's team led by Parliament Minority leader Francis Nyenze has come out boldly declaring that "No Kalonzo No NASA", on the other hand Raila's handlers Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, and ODM Secretary General Agnes Zani have also claimed Raila is the man to beat Uhuru.
NASA luminaries Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetangula and Musalia Mudavadi after their meeting
The most recent noises have been smoking out of ANC, where one close ally to Mudavadi, Mr Godfrey Kanoti has stated that late in 2016, Raila promised to support the former Sabatia MP presidential bid in agentleman's agreement with no paperwork involved. We are waiting to hear if any complains will also be raised from Sirisia, Bungoma county.
Andati, hypothises that this stalement, puts NASA in a status of a sinking boat.
"Raila is not going to give in and Musalia has already told the community that he is going to be the candidate. So what happens? Will Raila leave the ticket to Mudavadi? No he wont. Does Mudavadi leave NASA? No, because if he leaves the Luhya abandon him and say he is a weakling and has been cheated again," says Andati.
The analyst hence said the situation is very difficult for both leaders and could eventually ead to the fall of NASA.
"If they don't agree, which is most likely, there will be a breakup, if it happens then everybody will run on his own, thinking there will be a runoff. But they will lose, the whole lot of them and become irrelevant," says Andati.