Now that Raila Odinga's political star is plummeting alarmingly as we approach 2017, what is left of the old man?
Looking at the events of the past few weeks, the intrinsic revolt in Cord is a signal of a weakened opposition that shall be indubitably white-washed by a re-surging Jubilee in 2017.
Howbeit Jubilee could have tactfully engineered this revolt from a safe distance; there is no doubt Raila has lost grip of the Western voting bloc. In 2013, Musalia Mudavadi double-crossed ‘Baba’ as he denied him what would have been a dramatic runoff.
It's now Ababu Namwamba and Moses Wetangula's turn to provoke distress to ‘Baba.’ Without the Western voting bloc, Raila's political career is as good as over. But how can 'Baba' reinvent himself and pull a stun amid all these uncertainties? To earn himself revere and statesmanship in the eyes of Kenya's masses, he must contrive an exit strategy that shall leave his nemesis with envy and veneration.
Raila's last volition is to loan his ultimate bullet to a fresh candidate, Musalia Mudavadi been the most preferable, deputized by the ingenious Kalonzo Musyoka. Raila will nowise be president; however, he has an auspicious prospect of endorsing one just like he did in 2002 when he rallied the Rainbow Alliance behind Mwai Kibaki.
With a Mudavadi candidature, the opposition shall have locked down Western, Nyanza and parts of Rift Valley where Dr William Ruto is braving simmering defiance machinated by Baringo Senator Gideon Moi keen to rejuvenate KANU. Having Kalonzo Musyoka in the fold as the deputy president, the scheme shall muddle Jubilee’s equation considering Charity Ngilu shall be breathing revenge over her perceived betrayal by Jubilee's auxiliaries; the Kamba vote shall be indisputably assured.
Nevertheless, this shall be far from the required muscle to win against a strengthened Jubilee coupled with massive state resources available to the incumbent, but shall be enough to force a dreadful re-run.
Where shall ‘Baba’ feature in such a structure considering he might not cede his supremo status to lesser political luminaries? Governor Evans Kidero who has been moderate to Jubilee shall be impelled to recoil and allow Raila Odinga to run for Nairobi Governor. With the thousands of Luo, Luhya, Kamba and the Eastland’s Muslim community, coupled with a Kikuyu running mate like Bishop Dr Margaret Wanjiru who has a religious following in Nairobi, he shall deliver victory as early as 6am. He shall not only win the 'seat of power,' but deliver virtually all parliamentary seats in Nairobi, Nyanza, Western, Coast, Eastern, North Eastern and parts of the Rift Valley like Kajiado.
The rifts in the Great Rift Valley occasioned by Isaac Ruto and Gideon Moi would be catastrophic to Jubilees grip on the presidency. In addition, Raila shall be on pole to head the stalwart Council of Governors given his political outfit shall have delivered more than half of the gubernatorial seats.
To woo back the North Eastern region that irresistibly preferred Raila over Kibaki in 2007, Mudavadi would pick one of their men to replace the imperious herder Aden Duale as Leader of Majority in parliament. The Ameru would be courted with powerful positions in government besides promises to rejuvenate the Miraa business which is on death bed.
Coast on the other hand has devoutly supported 'Baba' in the past; this could be cemented with two or three cabinet posts. Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho is a fortress; the recent defections are just on paper.
It would be a monumental task taming Evans Kidero with his appetite for big money, however, with a clear winning formulae, the rough man would find himself calling the shots at treasury. Undoubtedly, denying him ODM ticket is akin to incapacitating him politically, he is the most un-inspiring leader Nairobi has seen in the recent times, but his vast resources cannot be wished away.
Ababu Namwamba would regret playing with his 'fathers' testicles; he would eventually be given 'adabu' and dispensed. Wetangula however would be assured of something big in Government.
The fall back strategy lest Jubilee’s infamous tyranny of numbers survived this coup de grace would be dramatic. With Raila controlling the Capital City as Governor, parliament and senate besides been the Chairman Council of Governors, City Hall would be transformed to a Mini-State House. Here, all manner of political strategies to unseat Jubilee and finish the witty William ahead of 2022 would be conceived. Further, Raila would be well positioned to ask for at least 'mkate kwota' through espionage.
Proposed amendments to the electoral law requiring the first runners up of a presidential poll and his running mate to join parliament automatically would come in handy for Mudavadi and Kalonzo. The duo would find their way back to the August House and lead a political barrage on Jubilee, employing their numerical strength to negotiate for positions for fatalities of this arrangement. This would inject life and energy to the bloated, boring and dull parliament we've today.
Raila is not done as yet; I discern he is yet to get to the proverbial ninth life of a cat. He can dramatically turn tables with a ‘ni yetu’ slogan depicting an 'inclusive government' away from the 'two tribes' that have towered Statehouse since independence. Such a call would ‘unite Kenyans’ and the proponents of status quo would be cornered. We're likely to witness a repeat of 2002 and dance to the ‘unbwoggable’ tunes. Nothing can coalesce other regions against Jubilee than Ruto’s persistent derision of other leaders a side of the hogwash and delusional ‘kurudisha mkono’ in 2022 promised by Mt Kenya mafia.
It goes without saying we've a very impotent presidency; it looks stout since the opposition is egoistic and rapacious – if not worse. Jubilee should be cautious; Agwambo doesn't fall without a fight. The moment he goes back to his reason, a storm of inconceivable magnitude shall raise – possibly his proverbial Tsunami is on the way.
Mwangi X Muthiora is a political commentator.
Twitter: @MwangiMuthora
Email: fafdays@gmail.com