Raila Odinga with the NASA co-principals. His surrogates are the ones who stand to lose if he hangs his political boots. [Photo|political.co.ke]
When President Mwai Kibaki was sworn in at night in 2007, many of the dealings leading to that event have since been swept under the carpet.
Thereafter, Kibaki’s hands-off approach to governance saw Raila Odinga become his thorn in the flesh, as he never gave him peace throughout the coalition government period.Ten years later, one of the creators of the bloated government is the deputy president and Raila having betrayed him, Ruto may be the reason that Raila will never step into State House as president.With the knowledge that Ruto has regarding Raila, he may be the opposition leader’s biggest nightmare thus the sustained attacks on his person and the push for a transitional government. If this was to happen, Ruto’s ascendancy to the first citizen’s position in 2022 will be a huge challenge.Raila is a master player in Kenyan politics and having survived through Moi’s regime, Kibaki’s and Uhuru’s have withstood the worst of having to bear with him. He has had all the freedom and he can play the government like a puppet but with his possible exit from politics, what will be the impact?There is a likelihood that the possible orphans who have been hanging on to Raila’s coats are the ones pushing him onto a wild goose chase because they risk losing their relevance away from Raila's shadow.One of the casualties is James Orengo who is accused of misleading Raila into boycotting the October repeat election. Following this pullout, Raila’s popularity as a mass pleaser increased but his sense of direction as a politician fell flat. Most of his supporters were left stranded and confused as they did not get from their leadership wisdom on how to take the next step.With this, the grapevine has been rife with rumours that Orengo has lost favour with baba and that Otiende Amollo is rising up to fill the shoes. This will take time to proof.Other NASA allied politicians like Millie Odhiambo, Gladys Wanga and others who have thrived by being associated with Raila Odinga will also suffer the same fate. Some like Anyang’ Nyong’o may just weather the storm by becoming their own men. Finally!MPs like Ken Okoth and Babu Owino may not be as popular once their baba exits the stage and so they have to milk as much of the old man as possible to gain mileage for the next phase of their lives in politics without Raila.And this brings in the real issue.For Raila, he has nothing to lose exiting politics while his orphans have everything at stake. Going by Raila’s influence over the two decades he has been in politics, his word has been law. Anybody he endorses becomes an overnight sensation among his followers. His cultic following and the tentacles it has in his native Nyanza and many informal settlements makes it hard-almost impossible for anyone venturing into politics not to acknowledge.Raila’s word is the law among his followers and the politicians made by Raila may die with him when he leaves active politics. This is why his lieutenants cannot let him be because they know his exit means their demise.And who better to kill these orphans than William Ruto?Deputy President William Ruto has become too successful too fast that even his political mentors do not have an explanation as to what formula he used to get to the top. While Raila was still playing big league politics, Ruto was still in school. But it seems that he does not waste his opportunities and takes lessons learned seriously.In 2007 when the country was burning, the DP was Raila’s right-hand man and his influence in the Rift Valley province then could not be ignored. Despite making sacrifices for Raila, the opposition leader betrayed him by putting him on the chopping board over the atrocities of the post-election violence in 2007/08. This saw Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta go to the Hague severally as their case at the ICC progressed.This showed that Raila did not value friendships and his sacrificing Ruto was proof enough that their friendship was nothing more but dead.In the years that followed, Raila used the 2007 episode in a smear campaign against Ruto, the mudslinging continued even after the Uhuru, and Ruto joined hands to create one of the most formidable coalitions, which saw them get to State House-a coveted place in Kenya’s politics.Raila and his brigade must have been shocked to see the two become the country’s leaders while they were seemingly novices in the game.His bitterness has seemingly rubbed off on his lieutenants and they must push hard to ensure that Ruto does not become Kenya’s president. Already, there are talks that the opposition is planning to work with former Kiambu governor William Kabogo in case they are unable to stop the Uhuruto duo from winning their second term.Will this succeed?Already, Raila is bankrupt of ideas and he cannot pull as much punch as he would in his former years. His followers seem to have become like zombies and their leaders cannot seem to crawl out of Raila’s shadow. Is this why they have a spirited campaign to ensure that Ruto does not get an easy ride in 2022? Is this why they have been using trickery and abusing the justice system to stall Ruto?While NASA brags of having the tyranny of brains, it seems they have not been reading the constitution in its entirety but only using segments that favour their views and this is why there is the talk of having a coalition government.Hiding under the guise of a ‘transitional government’, the machinations are still at work to push poll losers to have plum positions in government. What of the talk to create a Prime Minister’s position to accommodate Raila and his co-principals?While this is nowhere in the constitution, those pushing for this want to create a bloated government to appease the individuals who feel aggrieved by not being in government.Despite the fact that having an all-inclusive government would foster harmonious coexistence in the country, those advocating for the positions are largely from the NASA side which feels it has been locked out of government in unjust means.But, is Raila really interested or is he being pushed by his handlers so they can remain relevant? The answer to this only time will tell.