“As a founding member of ODM, Uhuru understands Raila,” Ngunyi says. [Photo/The Star]
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi claims that ODM leader Raila Odinga, who is largely expected to be Opposition coalition NASA’s presidential candidate, will walk away from the August general election if he senses defeat. Mr Ngunyi, who made the prediction in his weekly YouTube video appearance, said he was interpreting President Uhuru Kenyatta’s attack on Raila last week. While wooing Opposition stronghold Gusii region — made up of Kisii and Nyamira counties — the president claimed Raila, who ran against former President Mwai Kibaki in the 2007 disputed election, was at the centre of the deadly violence, which led to the deaths of more than 1,000 Kenyans and displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. "Raila has again started inciting Kenyans as he did in 2007 thus framing DP William Ruto. Yeye ndiyo aliwasha moto (He is the one who ignited the fire),” the president said last week, as quoted by The Star. The political analyst claimed that Uhuru has a deeper understanding of the former prime minister from their past days together. “As a founding member of ODM, Uhuru understands Raila,” Ngunyi says. “He knows that Raila is planning to stop the election or boycott the election if he senses defeat,” he remarks, adding that “the attack was to tell Raila that I have read your script and I’m ready for you.”In concluding that Raila, who faces strong opposition from Moses Wetangula, Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi for the NASA presidential ticket, plans to boycott the elections, political analyst Wang, who also appears regularly in the video, says she relied on more than six separate statements made by Raila last year about the possibility of not taking part in this year’s elections. “On December 5, 2016, Raila said free fair and credible elections are more important ones that peaceful polls,” she says, highlighting once instance. “If Raila loses, he will declare that the elections were not free, fair and credible,” she adds.According to Ngunyi, succeeding to walk away from a general election will not be an easy task for the ODM leader. “If Raila will boycott the elections and force another grand coalition (government), that is political genius,” he says, while naming national leaders in other counties who have managed to do it. Another interpretation of Uhuru’s attack on Raila, the political scientist says, is a warning to the NASA principals that Raila will blame them should violence happen during this year’s elections.