He predicted a landslide victory for President Uhuru Kenyatta against Cord’s Raila Odinga in 2013 polls, because of the “tyranny of numbers”.
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi said Raila lost the presidential election the moment the voter registration ended on December 18, 2012.
According to Ngunyi’s hypothesis of the 2013 polls, “the inevitable victory came from Jubilee coalition’s “bankable” ethnic vote of 6.2 Million (or 43.2% of the total vote).
“This number is basically a totting up of the registered GEMA and the Kalenjin voters. On that same ethnic logic. Cord coalition starts off with 19.2% of the vote or 2.74 million votes. For Cord to win, they need to double their support. For Cord to catch up with Jubilee, it must multiply each of its Kamba and Luo vote by 2.3. Virtually impossible is the implication,” he said before the election.
True to his prediction, Cord coalition lost to Jubilee Alliance.
Ngunyi now says Uhuru cannot rely on tyranny of numbers again to beat the National Super Alliance (NASA) in 2017 polls.
In his weekly 5th Estate YouTube channel, Ngunyi says for Uhuru to win in 2017, he should propose expansion of government, from the current monopoly of two, to a fellowship of five, including creating a Prime Minister post – as “proposed” by NASA.
The political analyst says the move will heal national wounds.
He says healing national wounds is more important than a good development record that the President and his deputy William Ruto have been feeding the electorate with in their political rallies.
“To be sworn in as President in September 2017, Uhuru needs to win decisively. But with the current NASA wave, I have doubts that a decisive victory is possible (for UhuRuto). Failure to win decisively can lead to a run off, and a run off against NASA will just turn the tide against Uhuru,” he says.