From left: President Uhuru Kenyatta, Ipsos Synovate research analyst Tom Wolf and NASA flag bearer Raila Odinga. [Photo/The Star]
A number of commentators (as well as political actors) have, on several occasions, raised doubts about certain survey results that appear to be contradictory.
One in particular is the contrast between the proportion of Kenyans who feel that the country is “headed in the wrong direction”, yet express an intention to vote for the incumbent Jubilee government (at least for its President and Deputy President) in the next election.
While much of their consternation is clearly driven by political partisanship, this contrast is worth consideration. While more detailed research would be required to adequately explore it, it may be suggested that a country’s perceived ‘direction’ entails much more than approval of the performance of particular leaders, or even their policies more generally.
To take one example, this recent Ipsos survey found that more than two-thirds of all Kenyans feel the country’s current direction is “wrong”, though with considerably more NASA than Jubilee supporters holding this (negative) view (91% vs. 52%). Yet among both of these sets of survey respondents the proportion who cited “the cost-of-living” for“the main reason” for holding this view was the same (68%).
But how much of the cost-of-living can be directly laid at the door of any national government? World market prices (especially for petroleum products), weather conditions, conditions in neighboring countries (especially those upon which much trade depends), and so on, are also factors.
Just how ‘wrong’ would Kenya’s perceived ‘direction’ have to be before at least the vast majority of Kenyatta’s (Kikuyu) and Ruto’s (Kalenjin) fellow-ethnics decided that they, and Kenya, would be better off with a leadership from outside their ethnic communities? For, in reality, a vote (even a verbal one expressed in a survey-interview) is a choice between two (or more) precise options, not just an opinion.
In other words, even if it can be assumed that many voters from the ethnic homelands of the current Jubilee leadership are less than completely satisfied with their current condition it might be more realistic to imagine that they would rather not vote than to help elect someone from an ‘alternative’ ethnic community, especially someone they view, incorrectly or otherwise, as likely to cause even more damage to what they possess and yearn for.
The question left is thus: What else can NASA do (barring any serious own-goals by Jubilee) to eliminate the remaining distance between them?
Energising/captivating campaigns? An overwhelming advantage in voter turnout?
Time will tell.
This is Tom Wolf press statement.