With the current political trends in the country, I'm afraid that Jubilee might lose in its strongholds or won't manage to get the exact support it received in the 2013 general election.
Currently, Jubilee has been focusing more in several Opposition strongholds among them Kisii, Nyamira, Mombasa, Lamu, Kilifi counties and the western region by launching various development projects to woo voters at the expense of its strongholds.
It is against this backdrop that I believe Jubilee might lose in its strongholds come 2017 or won't manage to get the exact number of votes it garnered in the last elections if it is not careful on fulfilling its pre-election pledges since it is focusing more on opposition strongholds.
Currently, Baringo Senator Gideon Moi and Deputy President William Ruto have been exchanging bitter words about the Rift Valley votes with the former accusing the DP of not fulfilling the pre-election development pledges in the region.
Gideon seems to have the backing of Bomet County Governor Isaac Ruto who always opposes DP Ruto’s politics in the Rift Valley and he has categorically stated that he won't join Jubilee in the planned merger of parties saying the move would kill democracy in the country. This might make Jubilee to lose more in its strongholds.
Also, Cord should try as much as possible to penetrate in the ruling coalition's strongholds to get more support than 2013
To counter this all politics Jubilee should balance in doing development projects across the country to avoid losing.