Deputy President William Ruto. [Photo/The Star]
Deputy President William Ruto is playing the 2022 game. The big question is: Is he playing it right?
In Kenya, for one to be President, they must command absolute loyalty from their tribe. In fact, it has to be fanatical sort of support. Whether it's Moi, Kibaki, Kenyatta 1, Kenyatta 2 or even Raila Odinga.
Ruto had it in 2013 but today he seems to have lost it. His tribe still backs him and will vote for him almost to a man on August 8, general election. But he has no fanatical following.
He is yet to command absolute loyalty. There are so many minions screaming against him in his backyard who he is yet to tame. Isaac(Ruto), Mandago(Jackson), Sudi(Oscar), Alfred Keter, and Gideon Moi.
That these minions can scream against him without dire repercussions tells that they have the backing of their people to shout against the king.
Will he spend the 2022 campaign period consolidating his backyard or reaching out to other areas? Will he be forced to negotiate with these minions hence reducing the size of the cake before reaching others?
This would deal a blow to his ambitions. It is no secret that DP Ruto is not loved outside Kalenjin Rift Valley (not even in central Kenya). Such a situation, therefore, is not one he would love to have himself in.
What then should he do?
1. Stop campaigning outside and clean up his house.
2. Crush the minions into submission? - This will not be easy since these guys are well oiled and are always on the ground.
3. "Negotiate" with his opponents early on? May be a good strategy immediately after the elections. He could negotiate with them the way he didwith Ababu. He, however, must first weaken them before "negotiating" with them so they don't feel too important. This will not work for Gideon Moi.
4. Begin charming other tribes post nane nane. I don't know how he will do this but I know it's not by buying people like Ababu.
Finally, Ruto must make a choice, does he want the Kikuyu vote or the other tribes? He can't have both. He must decide early which one he wantsand begin working for it.
For the Kikuyu vote, he must either be with Uhuru post nane nane (August 8) either in govt or in opposition. It gets better if he is in opposition.
For the other tribes, he must be in govt with Uhuru and rebel or be in the opposition without Uhuru. This option gets easier if Raila is either President or dead. Dead politically or physically.
The opinion piece was first written and shared by Ezra Omolo on his Facebook page.